Forecasting for recreational fisheries management: a derby fishery case study with Gulf of Mexico Red Snapper

In a derby fishery, anglers race to catch as many fish as possible during a limited season. To meet legal mandates to prevent overfishing, forecasting accuracy is paramount. Red Snapper is among the most prized species in the US Gulf of Mexico and represents a politically charged derby fishery case study. We describe the management considerations, data, methods, and specialized statistical forecasting approaches used to estimate recreational component season lengths to maximize fishing opportunities while meeting mandates to constrain catch below legal limits. Retrospective analysis of model predictions for 2013-2017 indicated mean prediction error of 2626 +/- 13 231, 3014 +/- 15 744, and 42 975 +/- 132 032 pounds whole weight per open day for charter, headboat, and private mode catch rates, respectively. Forecasting results using generalized linear models indicated that the annual harvest for 2017 would be caught in 2d for the private angling component with an 18% probability of exceeding the component quota. The federal for-hire (charter and headboat) component season was estimated to be 48 d, with a 5% probability of exceeding the component quota. There is a broad scientific and management interest in identifying strategies to continue rebuilding the stock while increasing stakeholder access.