Geospatial and Temporal Associations between Increases in Opioid Deaths, Socioeconomics, and Rates of Sexually Transmitted Infections in the Northeast United States 2012-2017

With the introduction of fentanyl to illegal markets in 2013 and an overall rise in rates of synthetic opioid use, opioid-related deaths have increased significantly. A similar trend has been observed for sexually transmitted infections, homicides, and poor mental health outcomes. In this paper, we explore the spatiotemporal relationship between opioid death rates and sexually transmitted infection (STI) rates in counties from the Northeast region of the United States between the years 2012-2017. We hypothesized that rates for gonorrhea, chlamydia, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) would all be positively associated with opioid death rates and that there would be a similar association between the STI rates and later time periods relative to earlier time periods. A negative binomial mixed-effects regression model was employed to assess these associations. Contrary to the study hypothesis, opioid death rates were not found to be significantly associated with the STI rates after accounting for other demographic and socioeconomic variables, with the exception of opioid deaths and gonorrhea in urban counties. Additionally, the regression demonstrated a significant association between infection rate and time period beyond the included socioeconomic variables and opioid deaths. Overall, this study indicates that declining sexual health outcomes may parallel rising opioid death, though both trends may be explained by similar underlying factors related to time period.