Fiscal sustainability in an emerging market economy: When does public debt turn bad?

被引：43

作者：

Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi ^{[1
,2
]}

Soon, Siew-Voon ^{[2
]}

Lau, Evan ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Putra Malaysia, Fac Econ & Management, Financial Econ Res Ctr, Upm Serdang 43400, Selangor, Malaysia

[2] Univ Putra Malaysia, Fac Econ & Management, Dept Econ, Upm Serdang 43400, Selangor, Malaysia

[3] Univ Malaysia Sarawak, Fac Econ & Business, Dept Econ, Kota Samarahan 94300, Sarawak, Malaysia

来源：

JOURNAL OF POLICY MODELING | 2017年 / 39卷 / 01期

关键词：

Endogenous multiple breaks; Fiscal sustainability; Debt; Economic growth; EXTERNAL DEBT; GROWTH; DEFICITS; TIME;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.11.002

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper proposes a Markov-switching model to assess the sustainability of fiscal policy in Malaysia for the period 1980-2014. Our results indicate the policymakers in the past have followed a sustainable fiscal policy, except during the brief periods of economic difficulty. The empirical analysis reveals that the government should cut the deficits only if they exceed a certain level, to ensure their sustainability in the long-run. Specifically, we find that after public debt exceeds a certain threshold level (above 55% of the gross domestic product), it is negatively correlated with economic activity. In addition to the threshold effect, we confirm the presence of a unidirectional causal relation between debt and growth. (C-) 2016 The Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：99 / 113

页数：15

共 39 条

[1] Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data? [J].