Evidence for intensification of meteorological droughts in Oman over the past four decades

Spatial and temporal variability of drought in Oman was assessed for the period 1979-2014 using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at both seasonal (3-month) and annual (12-month) timescales. Changes in drought characteristics (e.g. frequency, duration, intensity, severity, and spatial extent) were detected for six distinct climatic regions delineated using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Results suggest a statistically significant increase in the frequency and severity of drought during the past four decades. Nonetheless, drought exhibited pronounced decadal variability, with more frequent and severe droughts occurring after 1997/1998. Also, results demonstrate that the areas influenced by extreme and very extreme droughts witnessed a statistically significant increase on the order of 0.13% and 0.18%/decade, respectively, compared to - 0.06%/decade for the areas impacted by mild droughts. Spatially, there has been a prevalent drying trend in central and eastern regions of Oman, while a tendency towards wetter conditions was observed in northern Oman (especially in the Batinah plain). This study also investigates the time-varying dependency between climatic drivers of drought and large-scale circulation patterns using the cumulative annual mean (CAM) method. Results indicate an acceleration of drying after 1997/ 1998, mainly due to the warming sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Atlantic Ocean in recent decades and also the shift of the Pacific Ocean circulation patterns (e.g. PDO and El Nino) from the positive to the negative mode at the end of the 1990s. These configurations are favorable for significant changes in the thermodynamic drivers of drought (i.e. air temperature and relative humidity), but have less influence on aerodynamic drivers (i.e. wind speed). The significant temperature rise in recent decades, combined with a significant decline of rainfall and relative humidity, can explain the prolonged drought episode lasting from 1998 to 2014. A comprehensive assessment of drought variability in a poorly-studied water-stressed region like Oman is of particular concern for stakeholders and policy-makers. This study provides meaningful conclusions and a basis for water resources management, agricultural and energy production, ecological protection, and contribute to more reliable drought mitigation strategies at the regional and national scales.