An evaluation of the synchronization in the dynamics of blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) populations in the western Atlantic

Interannual variability in the abundances of blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) in populations along the U.S. east coast is well documented, but the mechanisms driving these fluctuations remain poorly understood. Using principal component analysis and dynamic factor analysis we quantified the patterns in variability and the degree of synchrony among blue crab populations along the U.S. east coast to gain insight into the mechanisms regulating the dynamics of these populations. We determined that a latitudinal pattern in the variability in abundance among the states existed and that a combination of the Gulf Stream Index, southern winter temperature, and larval mixing in the coastal ocean may be important drivers for the observed fluctuations of blue crab. The blue crab population in the Chesapeake Bay appeared to be an anomaly in that its abundance did not match the latitudinal trend seen in the other states. Understanding the dynamics of blue crab throughout its range may help managers determine which population responses reflect local dynamics and which may reflect shared, regional responses.