The dental work force in Wisconsin - Ten-year projections

Background. The national dentist-to-population ratio is expected to decline during the next decade. The Wisconsin Dental Association undertook a study to determine the impact of this decline on the future supply of and demand for dental care in Wisconsin. Methods. Using state and national data the researchers estimated the number of dentists leaving and entering the state for the years 2001 through 2010. Then, using multivariate regression equations, the researchers estimated expected changes in dentists productivity, the growth of the Wisconsin population and increases in utilization of dental services for the next 10 years. From these data, they determined the number of dentists needed in 2010 to maintain the current level of access. They assessed several strategies for increasing the number of dentists in the state. Results. Wisconsin will have 297 fewer dentists in 2010 than it did in 2000. However, with increases in dentists productivity of 1.8 percent per year a slowly growing Wisconsin population (0.42 percent per year) and modest increases in utilization (0.82 percent per year), Wisconsin will need only 194 additional dentists to maintain current levels of access to care. The authors examined several options for increasing the number of dentists and their productivity, including increasing the number of Wisconsin (vs. out-of-state) students enrolled at Marquette University School of Dentistry, Milwaukee employing more auxiliaries and using risk-based scheduling for recall patients. Conclusions. Wisconsin will have fewer dentists in 2010 than in 2000, but current levels of access can be maintained by implementing modest changes in the selection of dental students at Marquette, in the use of dental auxiliaries and in patient scheduling. Clinical Implications. With the national dentist-to-population ratio declining, each state should assess how its supply and demand for dental care will change in the next 10 years. If substantial supply and demand imbalances exits, options for correcting the imbalances need to be considered.