Research note: Has international tourism promoted economic growth in China? A panel threshold regression approach

The authors confirm a non-monotonic relationship between international tourism and economic growth, using China's province-level panel data from 1987 to 2010. Two endogenous cut-off points of the efficiency of international tourism in economic growth are identified. When the degree of tourism specialization is lower than 1.80% or between 1.80% and 2.04%, international tourism has a significant positive impact on economic growth, but the magnitude of the impact is weaker in the latter case. When the degree of tourism specialization exceeds 2.04%, an insignificant negative relationship between tourism and economic growth emerges. This suggests that tourism-led economic growth may not be sustained at high levels of tourism specialization.