Diffusion of renewable energy technologies in South Korea on incorporating their competitive interrelationships

被引：32
作者：
Huh, Sung-Yoon [1 ]
Lee, Chul-Yong [2 ]
机构：
[1] Seoul Natl Univ, Coll Engn, Technol Management Econ & Policy Program, Seoul 151742, South Korea
[2] KEEI, Uiwang Si 437713, Gyeonggi Do, South Korea
来源：
ENERGY POLICY | 2014年 / 69卷
关键词：
Renewable energy technology; Innovation diffusion model; Competitive interrelationship; Demand forecasting; South Korea; CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM; WIND POWER; PRODUCT DIFFUSION; INNOVATION-DIFFUSION; DEMAND; MODEL; TELEVISION; DYNAMICS; PROJECTS; DURABLES;
D O I：
10.1016/j.enpol.2014.02.028
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
Renewable energy technologies (RETs) have attracted significant public attention for several reasons, the most important being that they are clean alternative energy sources that help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To increase the probability that RETs will be successful, it is essential to reduce the uncertainty about its adoption with accurate long-term demand forecasting. This study develops a diffusion model that incorporates the effect of competitive interrelationships among renewable sources to forecast the growth pattern of five RETs: solar photovoltaic, wind power, and fuel cell in the electric power sector, and solar thermal and geothermal energy in the heating sector. The 2-step forecasting procedure is based on the Bayus, (1993. Manage. Sci. 39, 11, 1319-1333) price function and a diffusion model suggested by Hahn et al. (1994. Marketing Sci. 13, 3, 224-247). In an empirical analysis, the model is applied to the South Korean renewable energy market. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：248 / 257
页数：10
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