Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets

被引:558
作者
Seneviratne, Sonia I. [1 ]
Donat, Markus G. [2 ,3 ]
Pitman, Andy J. [2 ,3 ]
Knutti, Reto [1 ]
Wilby, Robert L. [4 ]
机构
[1] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Dept Environm Syst Sci, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland
[2] Univ New S Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia
[3] Univ New S Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia
[4] Univ Loughborough, Dept Geog, Loughborough, Leics, England
基金
澳大利亚研究理事会;
关键词
EXTREMES INDEXES; CMIP5; PRECIPITATION; TEMPERATURE; ENSEMBLE; PATTERN; BIASES;
D O I
10.1038/nature16542
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted limit of an increase above pre-industrial temperatures of two degrees Celsius, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The translation of CO2 emissions into regional-and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because such targets are more directly aligned with individual national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean.
引用
收藏
页码:477 / 483
页数:7
相关论文
共 59 条
[1]   Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne [J].
Allen, Myles R. ;
Frame, David J. ;
Huntingford, Chris ;
Jones, Chris D. ;
Lowe, Jason A. ;
Meinshausen, Malte ;
Meinshausen, Nicolai .
NATURE, 2009, 458 (7242) :1163-1166
[2]  
[Anonymous], 2013, CONTRIBUTION WORKING, DOI 10.1017/CBO9781107415324
[3]  
Boisier JP, 2015, NAT CLIM CHANGE, V5, P656, DOI [10.1038/nclimate2658, 10.1038/NCLIMATE2658]
[4]  
Christensen JH, 2014, CLIMATE CHANGE 2013: THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS, P1217
[5]  
Church JA., 2013, Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, P1137, DOI DOI 10.1017/CBO9781107415324
[6]  
Council of the European Union, 2008, CLIM CHANG INT SEC
[7]   The influence of large dams on surrounding climate and precipitation patterns [J].
Degu, Ahmed Mohamed ;
Hossain, Faisal ;
Niyogi, Dev ;
Pielke, Roger, Sr. ;
Shepherd, J. Marshall ;
Voisin, Nathalie ;
Chronis, Themis .
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2011, 38
[8]   Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate [J].
Deser, Clara ;
Knutti, Reto ;
Solomon, Susan ;
Phillips, Adam S. .
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, 2012, 2 (11) :775-779
[9]   Intensification of hot extremes in the United States [J].
Diffenbaugh, Noah S. ;
Ashfaq, Moetasim .
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2010, 37
[10]   Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models [J].
Drijfhout, Sybren ;
Bathiany, Sebastian ;
Beaulieu, Claudie ;
Brovkin, Victor ;
Claussen, Martin ;
Huntingford, Chris ;
Scheffer, Marten ;
Sgubin, Giovanni ;
Swingedouw, Didier .
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2015, 112 (43) :E5777-E5786