The Effects of Different Activity Distributions on Project Duration in PERT Networks

被引：28

作者：

Hajdu, Miklos ^{[1
]}

Bokor, Orsolya ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Szent Istvan Univ, Ybl Miklos Fac Architecture & Civil Engn, Thokoly ut 74, H-1146 Budapest, Hungary

来源：

SELECTED PAPERS FROM THE 27TH IPMA (INTERNATIONAL PROJECT MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION) | 2014年 / 119卷

关键词：

activity distribution; PERT; sensitivity analysis; COMPLETION-TIME; APPROXIMATION;

D O I：

10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.03.086

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学];

学科分类号：

12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;

摘要：

The original PERT technique assumes beta distribution for the activity durations. The developments of the past decades have partly refuted this concept; and many different distributions have been introduced. In our research, various distributions (uniform, triangular, beta) are applied in case of closed large-scale infrastructure projects. In this paper, the possible effects of these distributions on the project duration are investigated. It is shown that the use of different distributions with the same three-point estimation has a smaller effect on the project duration than a 10% difference in the values of the three-point estimation. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

引用

页码：766 / 775

页数：10

共 20 条

[1]

ADLAKHA VG, 1989, INFOR, V27, P272

[2]

[Anonymous], 1989, Studies in Production and Engineering Economics, Advances in Project Scheduling

[3]

Burt Jr John M, 1971, MANAGEMENT SCI, V18

[4] THE PERT MODEL FOR THE DISTRIBUTION OF AN ACTIVITY TIME [J].