Factors affecting private rangeland lease rates

Private rangeland lease rates have been used historically as an indication of the price of public grazing lease rates. The ability of these prices to adequately reflect short-term fluctuations in the rancher's ability to pay for forage has been questioned by policy makers and researchers. Multiple regression techniques were used in this study to evaluate how responsive private rangeland lease rates have been to short-term (yearly) fluctuations in market conditions. Independent variables included yearling prices, cattle numbers, hay prices, production cost index, land prices, forage condition index, and the previous year's lease rate. Yearling prices lagged 1 year, hay prices, production cost index lagged 1 year, and lease rates lagged 1 year statistically (P < 0.10) explained lease rates. The previous year's lease rate was the most influential explanatory variable, with more than half of the previous year's lease price reflected in the current year's rate. Statistically significant (P < 0.10) differences in lease rates were also found between western regions.