Rate and predictors of postpartum depression in a 22-year follow-up of a cohort of earthquake survivors in Armenia

Disasters have serious long-term impact on mental health for those exposed. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of postpartum depression among survivors of the 1988 devastating earthquake in Armenia. A nested case-control design was applied to investigate postpartum depression in a large-scale cohort of survivors followed between 1990 and 2012. From an original group of 725 adults who were assessed for psychopathology in 1990, 146 women reported having a delivery after the earthquake and were included in this study. Women with postpartum depression were identified using Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. A logistic regression model was fitted to identify the predictors of postpartum depression. Of the 146 women, 19 (13.0 %) had postpartum depression. Five independent predictors of postpartum depression were identified: number of woman's stressful life events (odds ratio (OR) = 2.06), her prior history of postpartum depression (OR = 16.98), delivering sick/dead neonate (OR = 13.65), poor living standards during the post-earthquake decade (OR = 5.77), and perceiving oneself reliable in 1990 (OR = 0.24). Anxiety in 1990 was marginally significantly related to the outcome (OR = 3.75). The rate of postpartum depression in this 22-year cohort was similar to that among the Armenian general population. Earthquake exposure was not related to postpartum depression, indicating that the impact of disaster-related trauma diminishes over time. The identified predictors provided evidence to develop interventions targeting groups of women most prone to postpartum depression under such circumstances.