Very early warning of next El Nino

被引：147

作者：

Ludescher, Josef ^{[1
]}

Gozolchiani, Avi ^{[2
]}

Bogachev, Mikhail I. ^{[1
,3
]}

Bunde, Armin ^{[1
]}

Havlin, Shlomo ^{[2
]}

Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim ^{[4
,5
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Giessen, Inst Theoret Phys, D-35392 Giessen, Germany

[2] Bar Ilan Univ, Dept Phys, IL-52900 Ramat Gan, Israel

[3] St Petersburg Electrotech Univ, Radio Syst Dept, St Petersburg 197376, Russia

[4] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany

[5] Santa Fe Inst, Santa Fe, NM 87501 USA

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | 2014年 / 111卷 / 06期

关键词：

dynamic networks; ENSO; spring barrier; ENSO PREDICTION; COUPLED MODEL; PREDICTABILITY; CLIMATE; VARIABILITY;

D O I：

10.1073/pnas.1323058111

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The most important driver of climate variability is the El Nino Southern Oscillation, which can trigger disasters in various parts of the globe. Despite its importance, conventional forecasting is still limited to 6 mo ahead. Recently, we developed an approach based on network analysis, which allows projection of an El Nino event about 1 y ahead. Here we show that our method correctly predicted the absence of El Nino events in 2012 and 2013 and now announce that our approach indicated (in September 2013 already) the return of El Nino in late 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood. We also discuss the relevance of the next El Nino to the question of global warming and the present hiatus in the global mean surface temperature.

引用

页码：2064 / 2066

页数：3

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