Inter-model comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change on the Upper Blue Nile basin using ensemble of hydrological models and global climate models

被引:47
作者
Teklesadik, A. D. [1 ]
Alemayehu, T. [1 ]
van Griensven, A. [1 ,2 ]
Kumar, R. [3 ]
Liersch, S. [4 ]
Eisner, S. [5 ]
Tecklenburg, J. [4 ]
Ewunte, S. [1 ]
Wang, X. [6 ]
机构
[1] Vrije Univ Brussel VUB, Hydrol & Hydraul Engn Dept, Brussels, Belgium
[2] UNESCO IHE Inst Water Educ, Delft, Netherlands
[3] UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Leipzig, Germany
[4] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany
[5] Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, D-34125 Kassel, Germany
[6] Hohai Univ, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
关键词
WATER-RESOURCES; UNCERTAINTY; MULTIMODEL; RUNOFF; STREAMFLOW; CATCHMENT; EXTREMES;
D O I
10.1007/s10584-017-1913-4
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts of future climate change on discharge and evapotranspiration of the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin using multiple global circulation models (GCMs) projections and multiple hydrological models (HMs). The uncertainties of projections originating from HMs, GCMs, and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) were also analyzed. This study is part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) initiative (phase 2), which is a community driven modeling effort to assess global socio-economic impacts of climate change. The baseline period of 1981-2010 was used to identify climate change signals in two future periods: mid future (2036-2065) and far future (2070-2099). Our analyses showed that two out of four GCMs indicated a statistically significant increase in projected precipitation in the far future period. The projected change in mean annual precipitation varied between 4 and 10% relative to the baseline period. The HMs did not agree on the direction of climate change impacts on mean annual discharge. Furthermore, simulated changes in mean annual discharge by all HMs, except SWIM which simulated up to 6.6% increase for the far future period, were not statistically significant. All the HMs generally simulated a statistically significant increase in annual mean actual evapotranspiration (AET) in both periods. The HMs simulated changes in AET ranging from 1.9 to 4.4% for the far future period. In the UBN basin GCM structure was the main contributor of uncertainty in mean annual discharge projection followed by HM structure and RCPs, respectively. The results from this research suggest to use multiple impact models as well as multiple GCMs to provide a more robust assessment of climate change impacts in the UBN basin.
引用
收藏
页码:517 / 532
页数:16
相关论文
共 37 条
  • [1] Comparing impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large African river basins
    Aich, V.
    Liersch, S.
    Vetter, T.
    Huang, S.
    Tecklenburg, J.
    Hoffmann, P.
    Koch, H.
    Fournet, S.
    Krysanova, V.
    Mueller, N.
    Hattermann, F. F.
    [J]. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, 2014, 18 (04) : 1305 - 1321
  • [2] Development and testing of the WaterGAP 2 global model of water use and availability
    Alcamo, J
    Döll, P
    Henrichs, T
    Kaspar, F
    Lehner, B
    Rösch, T
    Siebert, S
    [J]. HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES, 2003, 48 (03): : 317 - 337
  • [3] Evaluating CFSR and WATCH Data as Input to SWAT for the Estimation of the Potential Evapotranspiration in a Data-Scarce Eastern-African Catchment
    Alemayehu, Tadesse
    van Griensven, Ann
    Bauwens, Willy
    [J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING, 2016, 21 (03)
  • [4] [Anonymous], WATER RESOUR RES
  • [5] [Anonymous], CLIM DYNAM
  • [6] [Anonymous], BLUE NILE RUNOFF SEN
  • [7] Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment - Part 1: Model development
    Arnold, JG
    Srinivasan, R
    Muttiah, RS
    Williams, JR
    [J]. JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, 1998, 34 (01): : 73 - 89
  • [8] Subseasonal Analysis of Precipitation Variability in the Blue Nile River Basin
    Berhane, Fisseha
    Zaitchik, Benjamin
    Dezfuli, Amin
    [J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2014, 27 (01) : 325 - 344
  • [9] Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River Basin: implications of the 2007 IPCC scenarios
    Beyene, Tazebe
    Lettenmaier, Dennis P.
    Kabat, Pavel
    [J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2010, 100 (3-4) : 433 - 461
  • [10] Impact of climate change on the water resources of the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region: Modeled 21st century changes and implications
    Chenoweth, Jonathan
    Hadjinicolaou, Panos
    Bruggeman, Adriana
    Lelieveld, Jos
    Levin, Zev
    Lange, Manfred A.
    Xoplaki, Elena
    Hadjikakou, Michalis
    [J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2011, 47