Assessment of the future resources and needs for hospitalization in Hong Kong SAR

Objectives: To study the 'compression of morbidity' theory in the Hong Kong SAR by analysing the age and gender-specific hospitalization rates and the expected length of stay per patient for the period 1996-2000. 'Compression of morbidity' refers to the hypothesis that medical progress will reduce the duration of morbidity during life more significantly than increasing morbidity by extending life. Design: This is a retrospective study based on hospital admissions data from the Hospital Authority of Hong Kong which covers 93% of the patient population. Setting: Age and gender-specific hospitalization rates, expected length of stay and hospitalization needs for each specific age group in Hong Kong from 1996 to 2000, are estimated. Main results: There is no empirical support for compression theory; and there is no significant change in the hospital admission rates for the period 1996-2000. The total number of patient days is expected to increase by 80% because of the ageing effect alone. It is projected that the geriatric service will account for more than 60% of the hospital patient days utilization in 2029. The elderly dependency ratio will increase and the social burden for the next generation will be increased, as the working populations size continues to decrease due to low fertility in the Hong Kong SAR. Conclusion: The health care burden on the government is large and increasing. It is therefore essential to make plans to deal with the ageing population, which is predicted to be at its highest in 2020. The rising effect of public expectations on hospital services exerts further pressure on demand. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.