Spatial patterns of wildfire ignitions in south-eastern Australia

被引:54
作者
Collins, Kathryn M. [1 ]
Price, Owen F. [1 ]
Penman, Trent D. [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Wollongong, Ctr Environm Risk Management Bushfires, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia
[2] Univ Melbourne, Sch Ecosyst & Forest Sci, Creswick, Vic 3363, Australia
关键词
accidental ignitions; deliberate ignitions; lightning; FIRE OCCURRENCE; BOREAL FOREST; DRIVERS; DETERMINANTS; REGION; BASIN; FUEL;
D O I
10.1071/WF15054
中图分类号
S7 [林业];
学科分类号
0829 ; 0907 ;
摘要
Wildfires can have devastating effects on life, property and the environment. Official inquiries following major damaging fires often recommend management actions to reduce the risk of future losses from wildfires. Understanding where wildfires are most likely to occur in the landscape is essential to determining where wildfires pose the greatest risk to people and property. We investigated the spatial patterns of wildfire ignitions at a bioregional scale in New South Wales and Victoria using generalised linear models. We used a combination of social and biophysical variables and examined whether different categories of ignitions respond to different explanatory variables. Human-caused ignitions are the dominant source of ignitions for wildfires in south-eastern Australia and our results showed that for such ignitions, population density was the most important variable for the spatial pattern of ignitions. In future years, more ignitions are predicted in the coastal and hinterland areas due to population increases and climate change effects.
引用
收藏
页码:1098 / 1108
页数:11
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