Bayesian inferences of galaxy formation from the K-band luminosity and H I mass functions of galaxies: constraining star formation and feedback

We infer mechanisms of galaxy formation for a broad family of semi-analytic models (SAMs) constrained by the K-band luminosity function and HI mass function of local galaxies using tools of Bayesian analysis. Even with a broad search in parameter space the whole model family fails to match to constraining data. In the best-fitting models, the star formation and feedback parameters in low-mass haloes are tightly constrained by the two data sets, and the analysis reveals several generic failures of models that similarly apply to other existing SAMs. First, based on the assumption that baryon accretion follows the dark matter accretion, large mass-loading factors are required for haloes with circular velocities lower than 200 km s(-1), and most of the wind mass must be expelled from the haloes. Second, assuming that the feedback is powered by Type II supernovae with a Chabrier initial mass function, the outflow requires more than 25 per cent of the available supernova kinetic energy. Finally, the posterior predictive distributions for the star formation history are dramatically inconsistent with observations for masses similar to or smaller than the Milky Way mass. The inferences suggest that the current model family is still missing some key physical processes that regulate the gas accretion and star formation in galaxies with masses below that of the Milky Way.