Beggar thy Neighbor? The Transmission of Fiscal Shocks from the US to Canada

This paper investigates how innovations in income taxes and government expenditures originating in the US affect the US economy, and how these effects are transmitted to the Canadian economy. Using a semi-structural VAR model and data for both countries for the 1961:1-2004:3 period, we find that fiscal policy innovations originating in the US are transmitted to the Canadian economy by international trade and capital flows through interest rate and exchange rate channels. Unanticipated shocks to US government expenditures have beggar thy neighbor effects on Canada. US output increases and Canadian output decreases in response to a positive shock to US government expenditures. In response to an unanticipated increase in US income taxes, US output declines while US and Canadian real interest rates rise. The response of Canadian output, however, is not significantly different from zero.