Optimal voluntary and mandatory insect repellent usage and emigration strategies to control the chikungunya outbreak on Reunion Island

被引:11
作者
Klein, Sylvia R. M. [1 ]
Foster, Alex O. [2 ]
Feagins, David A. [3 ]
Rowell, Jonathan T. [4 ]
Erovenko, Igor, V [4 ]
机构
[1] St Marys Coll Maryland, Dept Math, St Marys City, MD 20686 USA
[2] Coastal Carolina Univ, Dept Math & Stat, Conway, SC USA
[3] St Marys Univ, Dept Math, San Antonio, TX USA
[4] Univ North Carolina Greensboro, Dept Math & Stat, Greensboro, NC 27412 USA
来源
PEERJ | 2020年 / 8卷
关键词
Chikungunya; Epidemiology; Game theory; Herd immunity; Nash equilibrium; Reunion Island; SELF-INTEREST; VACCINATION; DISEASE; MODEL;
D O I
10.7717/peerj.10151
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
In 2005, a chikungunya virus outbreak devastated the tropical island of Reunion, infecting a third of the total population. Motivated by the Reunion Island case study, we investigate the theoretic potential for two intervention measures under both voluntary and mandatory protocols to control a vector-borne disease when there is risk of the disease becoming endemic. The first measure uses insect repellent to prevent mosquito bites, while the second involves emigrating to the neighboring Mauritius Island to avoid infection. There is a threshold on the cost of using repellent above which both voluntary and mandatory regimes find it optimal to forgo usage. Below that threshold, mandatory usage protocols will eradicate the disease; however, voluntary adoption leaves the disease at a small endemic level. Emigrating from the island to avoid infection results in a tragedy-of-the-commons effect: while being potentially beneficial to specific susceptible individuals, the remaining islanders paradoxically face a higher risk of infection. Mandated relocation of susceptible individuals away from the epidemic is viable only if the cost of this relocation is several magnitudes lower than the cost of infection. Since this assumption is unlikely to hold for chikungunya, it is optimal to discourage such emigration for the benefit of the entire population. An underlying assumption about the conservation of human-vector encounter rates in mosquito biting behavior informs our conclusions and may warrant additional experimental verification.
引用
收藏
页数:23
相关论文
共 41 条
  • [1] High endemic levels of typhoid fever in rural areas of Ghana may stem from optimal voluntary vaccination behaviour
    Acosta-Alonzo, Carmen B.
    Erovenko, Igor V.
    Lancaster, Aaleah
    Oh, Hyunju
    Rychtar, Jan
    Taylor, Dewey
    [J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, 2020, 476 (2241):
  • [2] A Comparative Analysis of the Relative Efficacy of Vector-Control Strategies Against Dengue Fever
    Amaku, Marcos
    Bezerra Coutinho, Francisco Antonio
    Raimundo, Silvia Martorano
    Lopez, Luis Fernandez
    Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento
    Massad, Eduardo
    [J]. BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY, 2014, 76 (03) : 697 - 717
  • [3] [Anonymous], 1998, EVOLUTIONARY GAMES P
  • [4] A game-theoretic model of Monkeypox to assess vaccination strategies
    Bankuru, Sri Vibhaav
    Kossol, Samuel
    Hou, William
    Mahmoudi, Parsa
    Rychtar, Jan
    Taylor, Dewey
    [J]. PEERJ, 2020, 8
  • [5] Vaccination and the theory of games
    Bauch, CT
    Earn, DJD
    [J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2004, 101 (36) : 13391 - 13394
  • [6] Group interest versus self-interest in smallpox vaccination policy
    Bauch, CT
    Galvani, AP
    Earn, DJD
    [J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2003, 100 (18) : 10564 - 10567
  • [7] Persistent arthralgia associated with chikungunya virus: A study of 88 adult patients on Reunion Island
    Borgherini, Gianandrea
    Poubeau, Patrice
    Jossaume, Annie
    Gouix, Arnaud
    Cotte, Liliane
    Michault, Alain
    Arvin-Berod, Claude
    Paganin, Fabrice
    [J]. CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 2008, 47 (04) : 469 - 475
  • [8] Ebola could be eradicated through voluntary vaccination
    Brettin, Andrew
    Rossi-Goldthorpe, Rosa
    Weishaar, Kyle
    Erovenko, Igor V.
    [J]. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE, 2018, 5 (01):
  • [9] Broom M, 2016, APPL MATH, V07, P852, DOI [/10.4236/am.2016.79076, DOI 10.4236/AM.2016.79076]
  • [10] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2018, CHIK VIR PREV