An inter-comparison performance assessment of a Brazilian global sub-seasonal prediction model against four sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project models

被引：17

作者：

Guimaraes, Bruno dos Santos ^{[1
]}

Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos ^{[1
]}

Woolnough, Steven James ^{[2
]}

Kubota, Paulo Yoshio ^{[1
]}

Bastarz, Carlos Frederico ^{[1
]}

Figueroa, Silvio Nilo ^{[1
]}

Bonatti, Jose Paulo ^{[1
]}

de Souza, Dayana Castilho ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Inst Space Res, Ctr Weather Forecast & Climate Studies, Km 39, BR-12630000 Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil

[2] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading, Berks, England

来源：

CLIMATE DYNAMICS | 2021年 / 56卷 / 7-8期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会; 巴西圣保罗研究基金会;

关键词：

Sub-seasonal prediction; Forecast verification; Intraseasonal variability; Madden-Julian oscillation; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; FORECAST SKILL; SOUTH-AMERICA; PRECIPITATION; SYSTEM; TELECONNECTIONS; FRAMEWORK; IMPACTS; TROPICS;

D O I：

10.1007/s00382-020-05589-5

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

This paper presents an inter-comparison performance assessment of the newly developed Centre for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC) model (the Brazilian Atmospheric Model version 1.2, BAM-1.2) against four sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project models from: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Environmental and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). The inter-comparison was performed using hindcasts of weekly precipitation anomalies and the daily evolution of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) for 12 extended austral summers (November-March, 1999/2000-2010/2011), leading to a verification sample of 120 hindcasts. The deterministic assessment of the prediction of precipitation anomalies revealed ECMWF as the model presenting the highest (smallest) correlation (root mean squared error, RMSE) values among all examined models. JMA ranked as the second best performing model, followed by ECCC, CPTEC and BoM. The probabilistic assessment for the event "positive precipitation anomaly" revealed that ECMWF presented better discrimination, reliability and resolution when compared to CPTEC and BoM. However, these three models produced overconfident probabilistic predictions. For MJO predictions, CPTEC crosses the 0.5 bivariate correlation threshold at around 19 days when using the mean of 4 ensemble members, presenting similar performance to BoM, JMA and ECCC. Overall, CPTEC proved to be competitive compared to the S2S models investigated, but with respect to ECMWF there is scope to improve the prediction system, likely by a combination of including coupling to an interactive ocean, improving resolution and model parameterization schemes, and better methods for ensemble generation.

引用

页码：2359 / 2375

页数：17

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