Study on probability distribution of prices in electricity market: A case study of zhejiang province, china

被引：12
作者：
Zhou, H. [2 ]
Chen, B. [1 ,3 ]
Han, Z. X. [2 ]
Zhang, F. Q. [2 ]
机构：
[1] Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Joint Lab Environm Simulat & Pollut Con, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
[2] Zhejiang Univ, Coll Elect Engn, Hangzhou 310027, Peoples R China
[3] Peking Univ, Dept Engn Sci & Mech, Natl Lab Turbulence & Complex Syst, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
来源：
COMMUNICATIONS IN NONLINEAR SCIENCE AND NUMERICAL SIMULATION | 2009年 / 14卷 / 05期
基金：
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词：
Electricity market; Distribution of electricity prices;
D O I：
10.1016/j.cnsns.2008.04.020
中图分类号：
O29 [应用数学];
学科分类号：
070104 ;
摘要：
The study on probability density function and distribution function of electricity prices contributes to the power suppliers and purchasers to estimate their own management accurately. and helps the regulator monitor the periods deviating from normal distribution. Based on the assumption of normal distribution load and non-linear characteristic of the aggregate supply curve, this paper has derived the distribution of electricity prices as the function of random variable of load. The conclusion has been validated with the electricity price data of Zhejiang market. The results show that electricity prices obey normal distribution approximately only when supply-demand relationship is loose, whereas the prices deviate from normal distribution and present strong right-skewness characteristic. Finally, the real electricity markets also display the narrow-peak characteristic when undersupply occurs. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：2255 / 2265
页数：11
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