Distinct response of Northern Hemisphere land monsoon precipitation to transient and stablized warming scenarios

被引:17
作者
Cao Jian [1 ,2 ]
Zhao Hai-Kun [1 ]
机构
[1] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ KLME,Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast, Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm Change ILCEC, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China
[2] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Earth Syst Modeling Ctr, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China
基金
国家重点研发计划;
关键词
1.5 degrees C/2 degrees C global warming; Monsoon precipitation; NESM model; Transient global warming; Stabilized global warming; LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM; GLOBAL MONSOON; RAINFALL; CMIP5; ATTRIBUTION; PREDICTION; TRANSPORT; IMPACTS; OCEAN; CYCLE;
D O I
10.1016/j.accre.2020.09.007
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
To better understand the climate response under stabilized, overshoot, and transient global warming, four types of ensemble experiments on 1.5 degrees C12 degrees C global warming scenarios (i.e., stabilized 1.5 degrees C, 1.5 degrees C overshoot, stabilized 2 degrees C, and transient 2 degrees C) are elaborately designed using the Nanjing University Information Science and Technology Earth System Model (NESM). Compared with the modern climate (1985-2014), the projected surface air temperature (SAT) change is characterized by a robust 'Northern Hemisphere (NH)-warmer than-Southern Hemisphere (SH)' and land-warmer than-ocean' patterns. The projected precipitation change exhibits 'NH-wetter than-SH' pattern in the tropics. Although the response of SAT and precipitation climatology show similar pattern between stabilized and overshoot scenarios, some significant differences are still found. The projected change in the Northern Hemisphere land monsoon precipitation (NHLMP) is 30% larger in the transient 2 degrees C experiment compared with that in the stabilized 2 degrees C experiment. The more vigorous NHLMP in the transient global warming scenario is mainly due to the enhanced land-sea thermal contrast and interhemispheric temperature difference. The enlarged land-sea thermal contrast increases the surface pressure gradient between the NH continents and its adjacent oceans, thus enhancing the NH monsoon circulation and moisture convergence. The enhanced interhemispheric temperature difference shifts the Hadley circulation and intertropical convergence zone northward, leading to the enhanced moisture convergence and the shifts of tropical rain band over the NH monsoon region. This result highlights that climate responses may depend on different warming trajectories and, which could facilitate the strategic planning of governments.
引用
收藏
页码:161 / 171
页数:11
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