Global Potato Yields Increase Under Climate Change With Adaptation and CO2 Fertilisation

被引:43
|
作者
Jennings, Stewart A. [1 ]
Koehler, Ann-Kristin [1 ]
Nicklin, Kathryn J. [1 ]
Deva, Chetan [1 ]
Sait, Steven M. [2 ]
Challinor, Andrew J. [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Leeds, Inst Climate & Atmospher Sci, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England
[2] Univ Leeds, Sch Biol, Fac Biol Sci, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England
基金
英国自然环境研究理事会;
关键词
adaptation; climate change; climate smart agriculture (CSA); yields; potato; NITROUS-OXIDE EMISSIONS; ELEVATED CARBON-DIOXIDE; WATER-USE EFFICIENCY; SOLANUM-TUBEROSUM-L; CROP PRODUCTION; RADIATION INTERCEPTION; ESTIMATING EVAPORATION; STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE; ROOT DISTRIBUTION; HEAT-FLUX;
D O I
10.3389/fsufs.2020.519324
中图分类号
TS2 [食品工业];
学科分类号
0832 ;
摘要
The contribution of potatoes to the global food supply is increasing-consumption more than doubled in developing countries between 1960 and 2005. Understanding climate change impacts on global potato yields is therefore important for future food security. Analyses of climate change impacts on potato compared to other major crops are rare, especially at the global scale. Of two global gridded potato modeling studies published at the time of this analysis, one simulated the impacts of temperature increases on potential potato yields; the other did not simulate the impacts of farmer adaptation to climate change, which may offset negative climate change impacts on yield. These studies may therefore overestimate negative climate change impacts on yields as they do not simultaneously include CO2 fertilisation and adaptation to climate change. Here we simulate the abiotic impacts of climate change on potato to 2050 using the GLAM crop model and the ISI-MIP ensemble of global climate models. Simulations include adaptations to climate change through varying planting windows and varieties and CO2 fertilisation, unlike previous global potato modeling studies. Results show significant skill in reproducing observed national scale yields in Europe. Elsewhere, correlations are generally positive but low, primarily due to poor relationships between national scale observed yields and climate. Future climate simulations including adaptation to climate change through changing planting windows and crop varieties show that yields are expected to increase in most cases as a result of longer growing seasons and CO2 fertilisation. Average global yield increases range from 9 to 20% when including adaptation. The global average yield benefits of adaptation to climate change range from 10 to 17% across climate models. Potato agriculture is associated with lower green house gas emissions relative to other major crops and therefore can be seen as a climate smart option given projected yield increases with adaptation.
引用
收藏
页数:17
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Climate change impacts on global potato yields: a review
    Adekanmbi, Toyin
    Wang, Xiuquan
    Basheer, Sana
    Liu, Suqi
    Yang, Aili
    Cheng, Huiyan
    ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH-CLIMATE, 2024, 3 (01):
  • [2] Nitrogen Management Can Increase Potato Yields and Food Security for Climate Change Adaptation in the Andean Region
    Jorge A. Delgado
    Víctor H. Barrera
    Jeffrey R. Alwang
    Yamil E. Cartagena
    Luis O. Escudero
    Donna Neer
    Robert D’Adamo
    Angélica C. Zapata
    American Journal of Potato Research, 2023, 100 : 221 - 232
  • [3] Nitrogen Management Can Increase Potato Yields and Food Security for Climate Change Adaptation in the Andean Region
    Delgado, Jorge A.
    Barrera, Victor H.
    Alwang, Jeffrey R.
    Cartagena, Yamil E.
    Escudero, Luis O.
    Neer, Donna
    D'Adamo, Robert
    Zapata, Angelica C.
    AMERICAN JOURNAL OF POTATO RESEARCH, 2023, 100 (03) : 221 - 232
  • [4] Modelling the dependence of European potato yields on changes in climate and CO2
    Wolf, J
    van Oijen, M
    AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY, 2002, 112 (3-4) : 217 - 231
  • [5] Climate change -: Rise in CO2 will not help crop yields
    Dorey, Emma
    CHEMISTRY & INDUSTRY, 2006, (13) : 9 - 9
  • [6] Improving the predictability of global CO2 assimilation rates under climate change
    Ziehn, T.
    Kattge, J.
    Knorr, W.
    Scholze, M.
    GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2011, 38
  • [7] Impacts of climate change and CO2 increase on agricultural production and adaptation options for Southern Quebec, Canada
    Brassard, Jean-Phillipe
    Singh, Bhawan
    MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE, 2008, 13 (03) : 241 - 265
  • [8] Impacts of climate change and CO2 increase on agricultural production and adaptation options for Southern Québec, Canada
    Jean-Phillipe Brassard
    Bhawan Singh
    Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2008, 13 : 241 - 265
  • [9] SENSITIVITY OF A GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL TO AN INCREASE OF CO2 CONCENTRATION IN THE ATMOSPHERE
    MANABE, S
    STOUFFER, RJ
    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, 1980, 85 (NC10) : 5529 - 5554
  • [10] Elevated CO2 and temperature under future climate change increase severity of rice sheath blight
    Shen, Min
    Cai, Chuang
    Song, Lian
    Qiu, Jiangbo
    Ma, Chuanqi
    Wang, Dongming
    Gu, Xinyue
    Yang, Xiong
    Wei, Wei
    Tao, Ye
    Zhang, Jishuang
    Liu, Gang
    Zhu, Chunwu
    FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE, 2023, 14