Wind energy investments facing uncertainties in the Brazilian electricity spot market: A real options approach

被引：23

作者：

Aquila, G. ^{[1
]}

de Queiroz, A. R. ^{[2
,3
]}

Balestrassi, P. P. ^{[1
,4
]}

Rotella Junior, P. ^{[5
]}

Rocha, L. C. S. ^{[6
]}

Pamplona, E. O. ^{[4
]}

Nakamura, W. T. ^{[7
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Fed Itajuba, Inst Elect & Energy Syst, Itajuba, MG, Brazil

[2] North Carolina Cent Univ, Sch Business, Dept Decis Sci Econ & Finance, Durham, NC USA

[3] North Carolina State Univ, Civil Construct & Environm Engn Dept, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA

[4] Univ Fed Itajuba, Inst Prod Engn & Management, Itajuba, MG, Brazil

[5] Univ Fed Paraiba, Dept Prod Engn, Joao Pessoa, PB, Brazil

[6] Fed Inst Educ Sci & Technol North Minas Gerais, Almenara, MG, Brazil

[7] Univ Prebiteriana Mackenzie, Postgrad Program Business Adm, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil

来源：

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND ASSESSMENTS | 2020年 / 42卷

关键词：

Wind power generation; Electricity spot market; Real options; Investment analysis; Mean reversion with jumps; RENEWABLE ENERGY; POWER-GENERATION; MODEL; INNOVATION; PROJECTS; POLICIES; AMERICA; IMPACTS; PROMOTE; SYSTEMS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.seta.2020.100876

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

This study proposes a Real Options approach to investigate the economic feasibility of a wind power plant investment with the option of abandoning along the project life cycle. This novel approach considers uncertainties representation concerning electricity sales revenue in the spot market, and the uncertainty represented by the settlements of energy trading differences. Our results show that when considering these uncertainties, the abandonment option adds 30.3% to the value of the project, and the chance of not abandoning it until the end of the useful life is equal to 70.9%.

引用

页数：10

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