Can we predict occupational accident frequency?

A model has been developed to predict the frequency and associated costs of occupational accidents in the offshore oil and gas industry. Model inputs include (1) direct factors such as quality of personal protective equipment, (2) corporate factors such as training programme effectiveness, and (3) external factors such as royalty regime. Model development was based on a review of related literature, expert opinion, and reliability analysis concepts. The model accounts for the differing relative importance of influencing factors, using quantitative data derived from a survey of safety experts. The influences of external elements on corporate actions and of corporate actions on the direct accident process are also included in a quantitative manner, again benefiting from the expert opinion survey. An introduction to the problem is provided, followed by a brief summary of the literature reviewed, a description of the model and example runs demonstrating the model's versatility and capability. Taking a broader perspective, the work offers an example of quantifying something which, at first, seems unquantifiable. Tools such as this offer valuable aids to management and provide an improvement on qualitative opinion, hunches and similar.