DYNAMICS MODELING AND THE STUDY OF BIRTH RATE DETERMINANTS IN RUSSIAN REGIONS

Birth rate dynamics are affected by several groups of factors. Their impact in Russia is markedly differentiated across regions. The purpose of our study is to use cluster analysis to reveal groups of Russian regions with similar birth rate dynamics over the past 30 years of post-Soviet Russia and to define the determinants of these dynamics in region clusters. We used hierarchical cluster analysis to model Russian birth rate dynamics and segment regions with comparable determinants in this dynamic. We used the Total Fertility Rate and its indices for all regions over three important periods in the demographic history of Russia. The analysis revealed 5 clusters of regions with similar birth rate dynamics. The results of our analysis made it possible to identify the regions most and least sensitive to the impact of various groups of factors. Such modelling allows us to develop demographic policy (and to plan budgets for their implementation) in various types of regions in the most efficient way.