Impact of Wind Power Forecasting Error Bias on the Economic Operation of Autonomous Power Systems

Many efforts have been presented in the literature for wind power forecasting in power systems and few of them have been used for autonomous power systems. In addition, some recent studies have evaluated the impact on the operation of power systems and energy markets that the improvement of wind power forecasting can have. In this paper, the value of the information provided to the operators of autonomous power systems about forecasting errors is studied. This information may vary significantly, e.g. it can be only the normalized mean absolute error of the forecast, or a probability density function of the errors for various levels of forecasted wind power, which can be provided either during the evaluation phase of the wind power forecasting tool or by online uncertainty estimators. This paper studies the impact of the level of detail provided about wind power forecasting accuracy for various levels of load and wind power production. The proposed analysis, when applied to the autonomous power system of Crete, shows significant changes among the various levels of information provided, not only in the operating cost but also in the wind power curtailment. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.