Breeding for value in a changing world: past achievements and future prospects

Large-scale tree improvement programs began in the 1950s. Tree improvement is now part of operational silviculture programs in many companies and countries around the world and tree breeding programs have produced very impressive results: (1) realized gains in plantations being established today of some 40-50 % in volume yield above unimproved material for many programs; (2) increased efficiencies in all aspects of breeding, selection, testing and deployment; and (3) a shortening of the generation interval by a factor of two from approximately 30 years in the first generation to less than 15 years today for pine programs. What about the future? What should tree breeders be thinking, planning and doing to ensure that results 60 years from now are even more impressive than those from the previous 60 years? Tree breeders today live in a rapidly changing world faced with: increasing demands for food, energy and water; globalization leading to an interconnectedness of markets and rapid spread of exotic organisms; climate change and its implications for genetic deployment; burgeoning technology in robotics, communications and molecular tools; shifting ownership patterns of forest land; and the real possibility of completely new forest products and markets in the future. Three ideas for "Breeding for Value in a Changing World" are: (1) adopt a robust philosophy that aims to ensure maximum value produced per ha even in a future world that will be quite different; (2) embrace technology at every phase in the tree improvement process; and (3) encourage interdisciplinary teams of scientists to solve complex problems that require expertise ranging from molecular to landscape scales.