Friends. Foes. Frenemies? Unpacking the future of EU-Turkey relations

This paper looks into the future of EU-Turkey relations, which, in the last half of the century have been marked by ups and downs. Recently, the relationship came to a standstill, with both parties to be blamed for a vanishing enthusiasm in moving the relationship forward. Yet, what today seems to be a closed chapter, might well, in the next 15 years, develop into a working relationship, with both Turkey and the EU benefiting from a functional cooperation. Applying the foresight methodology, which helps avoid prejudging the future of the EU-Turkey relations, we came up with three scenarios thereof, namely "down in the dumps", "frenernies in flexible and functional cooperation" and "into the European fold". The scenarios are informed by three drivers, that are the intra-EU dynamics, internal developments in Turkey, and the situation in the joint neighbourhood, which we see as key determinants of the possible EU-Turkey futures.