An analytical study of the factors that influence COVID-19 spread

被引:24
作者
Aabed, Kawther [1 ]
Lashin, Maha M. A. [2 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman Univ, Coll Sci, Biol Dept, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
[2] Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman Univ, Coll Engn, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
[3] Banha Univ, Fac Engn Shoubra, Dept Mech Engn, Banha, Egypt
关键词
COVID-19; Environmental factors; Temperature; Air pollution; Altitude; Population density; Case study - Fuzzy logic system; RESPIRATORY SYNDROME; ABSOLUTE-HUMIDITY; TEMPERATURE; TRANSMISSION;
D O I
10.1016/j.sjbs.2020.11.067
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to constitute an international public health emergency. Seasonality is a long-recognized attribute of many viral infections of humans. Nevertheless, the relationship between environmental factors and the spread of infection, particularly for person-to-person communicable diseases, remains poorly understood. This study explores the relationship between environmental factors and the incidence of COVID-19 in 188 countries with reported COVID-19 cases as of April 13, 2020. Here we show that COVID-19 growth rates peaked in temperate zones in the Northern Hemisphere during the outbreak period, while they were lower in tropical zones. The relationships between COVID-19 and environmental factors were resistant to the potentially confounding effects of air pollution, sea level, and population. To prove the effect of those factors, study, and analysis of the prevalence of COVID-19 in Italy, Spain, and China was undertaken. A fuzzy logic system was designed to predict the effects of that variables on the rate of viral spread of COVID-19. (c) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of King Saud University. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
引用
收藏
页码:1177 / 1195
页数:19
相关论文
共 33 条
  • [1] [Anonymous], 2019, VIRUS TAXONOMY 2018B
  • [2] [Anonymous], NOVEL CORONAVIRUS 20
  • [3] Awotunde Joseph., 2014, African J. Comput. ICT, V7, P99
  • [4] Absolute Humidity, Temperature, and Influenza Mortality: 30 Years of County-Level Evidence from the United States
    Barreca, Alan I.
    Shimshack, Jay P.
    [J]. AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, 2012, 176 : S114 - S122
  • [5] Weather: driving force behind the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome in China?
    Bi, P.
    Wang, J.
    Hiller, J. E.
    [J]. INTERNAL MEDICINE JOURNAL, 2007, 37 (08) : 550 - 554
  • [6] Brooks J.P., 2020, PUBLIC HEALTH, DOI [10.21203/rs.3.rs-19504/v1, DOI 10.21203/RS.3.RS-19504/V1]
  • [7] Bukhari Q., 2020, Will coronavirus pandemic diminish by summer, DOI DOI 10.2139/SSRN.3556998
  • [8] Effects of Air Temperature and Relative Humidity on Coronavirus Survival on Surfaces
    Casanova, Lisa M.
    Jeon, Soyoung
    Rutala, William A.
    Weber, David J.
    Sobsey, Mark D.
    [J]. APPLIED AND ENVIRONMENTAL MICROBIOLOGY, 2010, 76 (09) : 2712 - 2717
  • [9] Chan K, 2011, ADV OPTOELECTRON, V2011, DOI [10.1155/2011/196707, 10.1155/2011/734690]
  • [10] Chen Hong, 2008, Reviews on Environmental Health, V23, P243