Simulating Spatiotemporal Changes in Land Use and Land Cover of the North-Western Himalayan Region Using Markov Chain Analysis

被引:14
作者
Bashir, Owais [1 ]
Bangroo, Shabir Ahmad [1 ,2 ]
Guo, Wei [3 ]
Meraj, Gowhar [4 ]
T. Ayele, Gebiaw [5 ,6 ]
Naikoo, Nasir Bashir [1 ]
Shafai, Shahid [7 ]
Singh, Perminder [1 ]
Muslim, Mohammad [8 ]
Taddese, Habitamu [9 ]
Gani, Irfan [10 ]
Ur Rahman, Shafeeq [11 ]
机构
[1] Sher e Kashmir Univ Agr Sci & Technol Kashmir, Div Soil Sci, Shalimar 190025, India
[2] Univ Guelph, Sch Environm Sci, 50 Stone Rd East, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada
[3] Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Farmland Irrigat Res Inst, Xinxiang 453003, Peoples R China
[4] Govt Jammu & Kashmir, Dept Ecol Environm & Remote Sensing, Srinagar 190018, India
[5] Griffith Univ, Australian Rivers Inst, Nathan 4111, Australia
[6] Griffith Univ, Sch Engn & Built Environm, Nathan 4111, Australia
[7] Ctr Space Sci & Technol Educ Asia & Pacific, Dehra Dun 248001, India
[8] Univ Kashmir Hazratbal, Dept Environm Sci, Srinagar 190006, India
[9] Hawassa Univ, Wondo Genet Coll Forestry & Nat Resources, POB 128, Shashemene, Ethiopia
[10] Sher e Kashmir Univ Agr Sci & Technol Kashmir, Div floriculture, MOE Lab Earth Surface Proc, Srinagar 190025, India
[11] Dongguan Univ Technol, Sch Environm & Civil Engn, Dongguan 523808, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
land cover; spatial variability; CA-Markov model; cellular automata; probability matrix; DYNAMICS; MODEL; CITY; CA;
D O I
10.3390/land11122276
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Spatial variabilities and drivers of land use and land cover (LULC) change over time and are crucial for determining the region's economic viability and ecological functionality. The North-Western Himalayan (NWH) regions have witnessed drastic changes in LULC over the last 50 years, as a result of which their ecological diversity has been under significant threat. There is a need to understand how LULC change has taken place so that appropriate conservation measures can be taken well in advance to understand the implications of the current trends of changing LULC. This study has been carried out in the Baramulla district of the North-Western Himalayas to assess its current and future LULC changes and determine the drivers responsible for future policy decisions. Using Landsat 2000, 2010, and 2020 satellite imagery, we performed LULC classification of the study area using the maximum likelihood supervised classification. The land-use transition matrix, Markov chain model, and CA-Markov model were used to determine the spatial patterns and temporal variation of LULC for 2030. The CA-Markov model was first used to predict the land cover for 2020, which was then verified by the actual land cover of 2020 (Kappa coefficient of 0.81) for the model's validation. After calibration and validation of the model, LULC was predicted for the year 2030. Between the years 2000 and 2020, it was found that horticulture, urbanization, and built-up areas increased, while snow cover, forest cover, agricultural land, and water bodies all decreased. The significant drivers of LULC changes were economic compulsions, climate variability, and increased human population. The analysis finding of the study highlighted that technical, financial, policy, or legislative initiatives are required to restore fragile NWH regions experiencing comparable consequences.
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页数:18
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