Predicting complications in pre-eclampsia: external validation of the fullPIERS model using the PETRA trial dataset

Objective: The internally validated fulIPIERS model predicts adverse maternal outcomes in women with pre-eclampsia within 48 h after eligibility. Our objective was to assess generalizability of this prediction model. Study design: External validation study using prospectively collected data from two tertiary care obstetric centers. Methods: The existing PETRA dataset, a cohort of women (n = 216) with severe early-onset pre-eclampsia, eclampsia, HELLP syndrome or hypertension-associated fetal growth restriction was used. The fulIPIERS model equation was applied to all women in the dataset using values collected within 48 h after inclusion. The performance (ROC area and R-squared) of the model, risk stratification and calibration were assessed from 48 h up to a week after inclusion. Results: Of 216 women in the PETRA trial, 73 (34%) experienced an adverse maternal outcome(s) at any time after inclusion. Adverse maternal outcome was observed in 32 (15%) cases within 48 h and 62 (29%) within 7 days after inclusion. The fulIPIERS model predicted adverse maternal outcomes within 48 h (AUC ROC 0.97, 95% CI: 0.87-0.99) and up to 7 days after inclusion (AUC ROC 0.80, 95% CI: 0.70-0.87). Conclusions: The fullPIERS model performed well when applied to the PETRA dataset. These results confirm the usability of the fulIPIERS prediction model as a 'rule-in' test for women admitted with severe pre-eclampsia, eclampsia, HELLP syndrome or hypertension-associated fetal growth restriction. Future research should focus on intervention studies that assess the clinical impact of strategies using the fullPIERS model. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.