Prediction of Pancreatic Fistula After Distal Pancreatectomy: Is It Necessary to Place Prophylactic Drain?

Background: The aim of this study was to determine the predictive factors for pancreatic fistula (PF) after distal pancreatectomy (DP) among preoperative and intraoperative parameters, and to clarify the patients who did not require drain placement. Methods: Between July 2009 and April 2017, a total of 102 consecutive patients underwent DP at Hyogo College of Medicine. Preoperative and intraoperative data were collected, and the predictors of PF after DP were identified. PF was identified in 35 patients (34%). In the multivariate analysis, 3 factors [body mass index (BMI) >= 22.4, contiguous organ resection, and pancreatic thickness >= 11 mm] were found to be independent predictors of PF (odds ratio, 5.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-17; P = 0.002 odds ratio, 6.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.6-28; P = 0.009; odds ratio, 11.6; 95% confidence interval, 3.7-36; P < 0.001, respectively). Results: A scoring scale for the prediction of PF was developed. BMI >= 22.4 (score: 1), contiguous organ resection (score: 1), and pancreatic thickness >= 11 mm (score: 2) were included in the scoring scale. Patients with a score of 0 never developed PF, whereas PF occurred in all patients with a score of 4. Conclusions: BMI >= 22.4, contiguous organ resection, and pancreatic thickness >= 11 mm were predictive factors for PF after DP. No patients with BMI <22.4, no contiguous organ resection, and a pancreatic thickness of <11 mm developed PF after DP, indicating that such patients may not require drain placement.