MELTING ICE CAPS AND THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF OPENING THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE

被引：89
作者：
Bekkers, Eddy
Francois, Joseph F.
Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo
机构：
[1] Univ Bern, Bern, Switzerland
[2] Univ Bern, Bern, Switzerland
[3] CEPR, Washington, DC USA
[4] CPB Netherlands Bur Econ Policy Anal, The Hague, Netherlands
来源：
ECONOMIC JOURNAL | 2018年 / 128卷 / 610期
关键词：
INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; MARITIME TRANSPORT; CLIMATE; COSTS; SERVICES; BARRIERS; GRAVITY; DECLINE; MODELS;
D O I：
10.1111/ecoj.12460
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
One consequence of melting Arctic ice caps is the commercial viability of the Northern Sea Route, connecting East Asia with Europe. This represents a sizeable reduction in shipping distances and average transportation days compared to the conventional Southern Sea Route. We examine the economic impact of opening this route in a multi-sector Eaton-Kortum model with intermediate linkages. We find remarkable shifts in trade flows between Asia and Europe, diversion of trade within Europe, heavy shipping traffic in the Arctic and a substantial drop in Suez traffic. Projected shifts in trade also imply substantial pressure on an already threatened Arctic ecosystem.
引用
收藏
页码：1095 / 1127
页数：33
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