MELTING ICE CAPS AND THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF OPENING THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE

被引：89

作者：

Bekkers, Eddy

Francois, Joseph F.

Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo

机构：

[1] Univ Bern, Bern, Switzerland

[2] Univ Bern, Bern, Switzerland

[3] CEPR, Washington, DC USA

[4] CPB Netherlands Bur Econ Policy Anal, The Hague, Netherlands

来源：

ECONOMIC JOURNAL | 2018年 / 128卷 / 610期

关键词：

INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; MARITIME TRANSPORT; CLIMATE; COSTS; SERVICES; BARRIERS; GRAVITY; DECLINE; MODELS;

D O I：

10.1111/ecoj.12460

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

One consequence of melting Arctic ice caps is the commercial viability of the Northern Sea Route, connecting East Asia with Europe. This represents a sizeable reduction in shipping distances and average transportation days compared to the conventional Southern Sea Route. We examine the economic impact of opening this route in a multi-sector Eaton-Kortum model with intermediate linkages. We find remarkable shifts in trade flows between Asia and Europe, diversion of trade within Europe, heavy shipping traffic in the Arctic and a substantial drop in Suez traffic. Projected shifts in trade also imply substantial pressure on an already threatened Arctic ecosystem.

引用

页码：1095 / 1127

页数：33

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