TSH increment and the risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus in euthyroid subjects

Thyroid function is known to influence glucose metabolism, and thyroid-stimulating hormone is the most useful parameter in screening for thyroid dysfunction. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the incidence of type 2 diabetes according to baseline thyroid-stimulating hormone level and thyroid-stimulating hormone change in euthyroid subjects. We identified and enrolled 17,061 euthyroid subjects without diabetes among participants who had undergone consecutive thyroid function tests between 2006 and 2012 as a part of yearly health check-up program. Thyroid-stimulating hormone changes were determined by subtracting baseline thyroid-stimulating hormone level from thyroid-stimulating hormone level at 1 year before diagnosis of diabetes or at the end of follow-up in subjects who did not develope diabetes. During 84,595 person-years of follow-up, there were 956 new cases of type 2 diabetes. Cox proportional hazards models showed the risk of incident type 2 diabetes was significantly increased with each 1 mu IU/mL increment in TSH after adjustment for multiple confounding factors (hazard ratio = 1.13, 95% confidence interval: 1.07-1.20, P < 0.001). Compared with individuals in the lowest tertile (-4.08 to 0.34 mu IU/mL), those in the highest thyroid-stimulating hormone change tertile (0.41-10.84 mu IU/mL) were at greater risk for incident type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio = 1.25, 95% confidence interval: 1.05-1.48, P for trend = 0.011). However, baseline thyroid-stimulating hormone level and tertile were not associated with the risk for diabetes. Prominent increase in thyroid-stimulating hormone concentration can be an additional risk factor for the development of type 2 diabetes in euthyroid subjects.