Estimation of earthquake damage probabilities for reinforced concrete buildings

Due to uncertainties involved both in the occurrence of earthquakes and in structural response, earthquake damage prediction has to be treated in a probabilistic manner. In this study two statistical methods are presented for the prediction of potential seismic damage to low and mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings in Turkey. These methods are based on the utilization of damage probability matrices and reliability theory. The damage data compiled during recent earthquakes that occurred in Turkey are used to compare the predictions of these two methods.