Trap of trends to statistical significance: likelihood of near significant P value becoming more significant with extra data

被引：70

作者：

Wood, John ^{[1
,2
]}

Freemantle, Nick ^{[1
,2
]}

King, Michael ^{[3
,4
]}

Nazareth, Irwin ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] UCL, Res Dept Primary Care, London NW3 2PF, England

[2] UCL, Populat Hlth & PRIMENT Clin Trials Unit, London NW3 2PF, England

[3] UCL, Div Psychiat, London W1W 7EJ, England

[4] UCL, PRIMENT Clin Trials Unit, London W1W 7EJ, England

来源：

BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL | 2014年 / 348卷

关键词：

D O I：

10.1136/bmj.g2215

中图分类号：

R5 [内科学];

学科分类号：

1002 ; 100201 ;

摘要：

When faced with a P value that has failed to reach some specific threshold (generally P>0.05), authors of scientific articles may imply a trend towards statistical significance" or otherwise suggest that the failure to achieve statistical significance was due to insufficient data. This paper presents a quantitative analysis to show that such descriptions give a misleading impression and undermine the principle of accurate reporting."

引用

页数：6

共 7 条

[1] Are Macrophages the Foot Soldiers in the War Waged by Aldosterone Against the Heart? [J].

Dorrance, Anne M. .

HYPERTENSION, 2009, 54 (03) :451-453

[2]

Fisher RA, 1966, DESIGN EXPT, P21

[3] Revised standards for statistical evidence [J].

Johnson, Valen E. .

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2013, 110 (48) :19313-19317

[4] A Trial of Combination Antimalarial Therapies in Children from Papua New Guinea [J].

Karunajeewa, Harin A. ;

Mueller, Ivo ;

Senn, Michele ;

Lin, Enmoore ;

Law, Irwin ;

Gomorrai, P. Servina ;

Oa, Olive ;

Griffin, Suzanne ;

Kotab, Kaye ;

Suano, Penias ;

Tarongka, Nandao ;

Ura, Alice ;

Lautu, Dulcie ;

Page-Sharp, Madhu ;

Wong, Rina ;

Salman, Sam ;

Siba, Peter ;

Ilett, Kenneth F. ;

Davis, Timothy M. E. .

NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, 2008, 359 (24) :2545-2557

[5]

Sedgewick P., 2010, BMJ-BRIT MED J, V340, pc2458

[6]

Tukey J. W., 1991, Statistical Science, V6, P100, DOI [10.1214/ss/1177011945, DOI 10.1214/SS/1177011945]

[7] Confidence Distribution, the Frequentist Distribution Estimator of a Parameter: A Review [J].

Xie, Min-ge ;

Singh, Kesar .

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL REVIEW, 2013, 81 (01) :3-39

← 1 →