Discussion concerning the multi-ranked deterioration forecasting model based on incomplete inspection data

This paper presents a multi-ranked deterioration model for a civil engineering structure. The Markov chain model is widely used for engineering structures. Though the model has the advantage of easy handling, it needs a strong assumption that the transition rate for a unit time is always constant. On the other hand, the current time-dependent multi-ranked deterioration model has some difficulties when practically applied to actual incomplete inspection data. This paper tries to forecast a multi-ranked deterioration state based on incomplete inspection data without assuming a specific probability distribution. The proposed model is applied to inspection data for an actual tunnel structure and discusses the effectiveness of the proposed model.