Research on Prediction of Energy Demand in China based on Grey Theory and System Dynamics

被引：0
作者：
He, Yue [1 ]
Wu, Junyong [1 ]
Ge, Yi [2 ]
Li, Dezhi [3 ]
Yan, Huaguang [3 ]
机构：
[1] Beijing Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Elect Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China
[2] State Grid Jiangsu Econ Res Inst, Grid Planning Dept, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
[3] China Elect Power Res Inst, Energy Supply & Consuming Dept, Beijing, Peoples R China
来源：
2017 IEEE CONFERENCE ON ENERGY INTERNET AND ENERGY SYSTEM INTEGRATION (EI2) | 2017年
关键词：
Energy consumption structure; Energy prediction; Energy supply and demand; Grey theory; System dynamics;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号：
0807 ; 0820 ;
摘要：
Energy is a key material basis for economic development and social progress and an important factor affecting human living environment. It is of great significance to scientifically and rationally predict energy supply in China for the formulation of energy policy and promotion of energy strategy in China. Based on the analysis of the current situation of energy supply and demand in China, the grey prediction model is used to predict and calculate the benchmark parameters. The system dynamics of energy supply and demand in China is modeled and the baseline scenario and high-tech scenario are set; the energy supply and demand is predicted and analyzed for long-term; as technological progress is the key to solve energy problems in China, it is imperative to propose energy transformation in China and give the corresponding policy recommendations.
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页数：6
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