Monitoring-Based Reliability Analysis of Aging Concrete Structures by Bayesian Updating

Structural-health-monitoring techniques provide valuable in-service measured information for existing civil engineering structures such as bridges, which can be used for predicting future structural performance and determining optimum maintenance strategy. This paper presents an effective approach for analyzing structural reliability during the service life of existing reinforced-concrete structures on the basis of monitored information. The process of lifetime structural-performance deterioration affected by reinforcement corrosion such as bond strength and load-bearing capacity is discussed. Crack growth in cover concrete due to reinforcement corrosion is demonstrated to be the main factor for structural-performance deterioration, thus it is chosen as a representative symptom for evaluating lifetime structural reliability. In order to consider the uncertainty in modeling structural-performance deterioration, the Weibull life evolution model associated with the cover concrete crack growth is employed for analyzing reliability, updating probability of failure profiles after maintenance, and evaluating optimal maintenance strategy. The results for a concrete bridge show that the proposed approach can provide reliable predictions of future structural performance and cost-effective maintenance strategy of aging reinforced-concrete structures. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.