AGE-DEPENDENT BRANCHING PROCESSES AS MODELS OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES

被引：0

作者：

Gonzalez, Miguel ^{[1
]}

Martinez, Rodrigo ^{[1
]}

Slavtchova-Bojkova, Maroussia ^{[2
,3
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Extremadura, Dept Math, E-06071 Badajoz, Spain

[2] St Kl Ohridski Sofia Univ, Dept Probabil Operat Res & Stat, Fac Math & Informat, Sofia 1164, Bulgaria

[3] Bulgarian Acad Sci, Dept Probabil & Stat, Inst Math & Informat, BU-1113 Sofia, Bulgaria

来源：

COMPTES RENDUS DE L ACADEMIE BULGARE DES SCIENCES | 2009年 / 62卷 / 05期

关键词：

Sevast'yanov's age-dependent branching process; SIR model; time to extinction; vaccination policies; Monte-Carlo method; avian influenza; VACCINATION; EXTINCTION; OUTBREAKS; TIME;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

This paper is concerned with a branching stochastic model describing outbreaks of an infectious vaccine-preventable disease. The basic aim is to define the optimal rate of susceptible individuals that has to be immunized and/or extra-vaccinated in case of fast emerging infectious disease. To this end, the epidemics is modelled through a Sevast'yanov's age-dependent branching process. We study the distributional properties of the time to elimination of an epidemics depending on the rate of the immunized individuals into the population. From these results, we suggest a vaccination policy to have the epidemics ceased before a given period of time for a given mean number of contacts based on the mean of the infection survival time. Finally, we provide a simulation-based method to determine the optimal vaccination policy.

引用

页码：541 / 550

页数：10

共 20 条

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