Larger Nephron Size and Nephrosclerosis Predict Progressive CKD and Mortality after Radical Nephrectomy for Tumor and Independent of Kidney Function

Background Nephron hypertrophy and nephrosclerosis may be important determinants of CKD and mortality. However, studies of outcomes associated with these microstructural features have been limited to small tissue specimens from patients selected for either good kidney health or known kidney disease. Methods To determine whether microstructural features are predictive of progressive CKD and mortality outcomes, we studied patients who underwent a radical nephrectomy for a tumor. Large wedge sections of renal parenchyma distal to the tumor were stained and scanned into high-resolution images; we annotated the cortex and all glomeruli to calculate glomerular volume, cortex volume per glomerulus, and percentage of globally sclerotic glomeruli. Morphometric measurements also included percentages of artery luminal stenosis and interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy (IF/TA) of the cortex. At follow-up visits every 6-12 months, we determined which patients experienced progressive CKD (defined as dialysis, kidney transplantation, or a 40% decline from postnephrectomy eGFR). Cox models for these outcomes were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, smoking, eGFR, and proteinuria. Results Among 936 patients (mean age, 64 years; postnephrectomy baseline eGFR, 48 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)), 117 progressive CKD events, 183 noncancer deaths, and 116 cancer deaths occurred during a median follow-up of 6.4 years. Larger glomerular volume, larger cortex per glomerulus, and higher percentage of globally sclerotic glomeruli or IF/TA predicted progressive CKD. Higher percentage IF/TA also predicted noncancer mortality. Microstructural features did not predict cancer mortality or recurrence. Conclusions After a radical nephrectomy, larger nephrons and nephrosclerosis predicted progressive CKD, and IF/TA predicted noncancer mortality. Morphometric analysis of renal parenchyma can predict noncancer clinical events in patients long after their radical nephrectomy. Significance Statement Predicting outcomes on the basis of renal histology after a radical nephrectomy has been limited to studies with small sample sizes, short follow-ups, and only a descriptive characterization of histology. In this study of 936 patients followed up for a median of 6.4 years after establishing a new baseline kidney function following radical nephrectomy, the authors used morphometric methods to quantitatively characterize microstructural features on large renal wedge sections. Findings of larger nephrons and more extensive glomerulosclerosis and interstitial fibrosis predicted progressive CKD; interstitial fibrosis also predicted mortality from causes other than cancer. These findings provide insight into the important microstructural features of "generic" CKD in patients without a specific kidney disease and support the use of quantitative methods to evaluate renal histology after a radical nephrectomy to determine patients' long-term risks.