Grains Production Prospects and Long Run Food Security in Egypt

Egypt's population growth, scarce resources, and a struggling economy threaten its capacity to achieve food security. Water is of particular interest at this juncture given impending development projects under increasingly uncertain climate conditions. The main objective of this research is to forecast grains production in Egypt under different productivity scenarios, based on annual data from 1980 to 2017, to estimate and forecast cultivated area. Findings suggest that the potential reduction in the Nile flows into Egypt will adversely impact agricultural production, especially during the summer season, reducing cultivated areas and decreasing crop yields. These findings suggest that Egypt's reliance on imports will continue and grain imports will increase as the population grows and opportunities to reclaim lands remain limited. If food security and concerns about reliance on food imports persist among leaders, future policy options should focus on increasing water-use efficiency and raising productivity of both land and water.