Understanding social licence to operate for onshore gas development: How the underlying drivers fit together

Unconventional gas plays a significant role in transitioning to low carbon energy sources; however, its extraction is socially contested, and proponents increasingly face social licence issues. Explaining social acceptance for unconventional gas is complex, with multiple factors at play. This study uses comprehensive statistical modelling to explain social acceptance of a local coal seam gas (CSG) development in its pre-approval phase. Using a representative sample of 400 randomly selected residents in rural Australia, the statistical model explained 83% of variation in acceptance and measured interdependencies between eight factors determining acceptance. These factors were: effects from industry activity (perceived impacts and perceived benefits); distributional fairness (the spread of costs and benefits); the relational aspects between the host community and industry (perceptions of trust in industry, relationship quality and procedural fairness); governance of the industry (informal and formal governance, and trust in governing bodies); and knowledge (of the local CSG industry). Results showed that perceived impacts were the main driver of acceptance, with perceived benefits, distributional fairness, and trust in industry the next most important determinants. Relationship quality and procedural fairness predicted trust. Industry knowledge was only a minor determinant of acceptance. Those 'rejecting' CSG development had starkly more negative perceptions of the underlying factors than those 'supporting'. However, both had higher self-rated knowledge than those who felt 'lukewarm' about CSG. This highly predictive statistical model can be used by industry to direct their efforts at the most important drivers of acceptance, such as benefit sharing and addressing concerns about impacts, and for planning their community engagement and communication. Policy makers and regulators can use the model to guide their expectations of industry when assessing projects for approval, including building trust through effective community engagement. Moreover, the research suggests that information is best targeted at residents with 'lukewarm' or less established views, and points to the importance of providing them with specific information about important factors underlying social acceptance such as benefit sharing, impact mitigation, procedural fairness, and governance, rather than general industry information. These insights help create the necessary preconditions for establishing a social licence to operate for an onshore gas development.