Worry and the simulation of future outcomes

This study describes the development of a methodology for studying dynamic aspects of ongoing thought processes drawing on the theories of Kahneman and Tversky on heuristics in thinking and judgement. Specifically, the potential role of the simulation heuristic (Kahneman and Tversky, 1982) in worry about future outcomes was examined. Women who were pregnant for the first time were asked to simulate going into labor and arriving at the hospital on time (the desired outcome). The resulting protocols were coded for "goodness-of-simulation" in terms of the simulation heuristic. The prediction was that goodness-of-simulation would lead to higher subjective probability of a positive outcome and less worry. This hypothesis was supported. The method developed in this study is potentially broadly applicable to various clinical and non-clinical phenomena.