Partisan dealignment, electoral choice and party-system change in Canada

This paper investigates the conditions under which significant changes can occur in the structure and composition of a party system in a contemporary mature democracy. The empirical focus is Canada. Although one of the oldline Canadian parties, the Liberals, won a parliamentary majority in the most recent (1993) national election, two others, the governing Progressive Conservatives (PC) and the social democratic opposition New Democratic Party (NDP), suffered disastrous defeats. Two new parties with regionally concentrated bases of support, Reform and the Bloc Quebecois, enjoyed marked success. Analyses of national survey data reveal that although economic issues generated by a serious, protracted recession were the principal proximate forces eroding PC and NDP support, dissatisfaction with all oldline parties was widespread. This disaffection, the virtual devastation of two of these parties, and the continuing strength of the two new parties in their regional bases, suggest that 1993 was a type of 'critical election' that significantly altered Canada's national party system.