Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

被引:267
作者
Raupach, Michael R. [1 ]
Davis, Steven J. [2 ]
Peters, Glen P. [3 ]
Andrew, Robbie M. [3 ]
Canadell, Josep G. [4 ]
Ciais, Philippe [5 ]
Friedlingstein, Pierre [6 ]
Jotzo, Frank [7 ]
van Vuuren, Detlef P. [8 ,9 ]
Le Quere, Corinne [10 ]
机构
[1] Australian Natl Univ, Climate Change Inst, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia
[2] Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA 92697 USA
[3] CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway
[4] Global Carbon Project, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
[5] CEA CNRS UVSQ, Ctr Etud Orme des Merisiers, IPSL LSCE, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France
[6] Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England
[7] Australian Natl Univ, Crawford Sch Publ Policy, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia
[8] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands
[9] Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands
[10] Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England
基金
英国自然环境研究理事会; 欧盟第七框架计划; 澳大利亚研究理事会;
关键词
CLIMATE-CHANGE; INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; BRAZILIAN PROPOSAL; CO2; EMISSIONS; RESPONSIBILITY; FRAMEWORK; TARGETS; COSTS;
D O I
10.1038/NCLIMATE2384
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 degrees C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions.
引用
收藏
页码:873 / 879
页数:7
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