Uncertainty quantification in aircraft gas turbine engines

In a complex system like the jet engine, engine variables are affected by many systems making fault identification difficult. Therefore, Prognostics and Health Management Systems should be able to factor in the different sources of uncertainty. The different sources of uncertainty integral to diagnostics and prognostics must be accounted for in a probabilistic method for the approach to make any sense. This article aims to address the effect of uncertainty mainly in the form of random sensor noise on the modelled CFM56-7B27 engine output variables. Statistical Interpretations are utilised to investigate this random noise effect.