Unbalanced sex ratios in Germany caused by World War II and their effect on fertility: A life cycle perspective

This paper analyzes the effects of permanently unbalanced sex ratios in Germany caused by World War II on fertility outcomes over the life cycle. Using Census records linked with individual biography data, our analysis confirms the commonly found short-term pattern of decreased fertility rates due to a stark imbalance of the sex ratio. Yet, the long-term effects of such an imbalance crucially depend on when in the life cycle fertility is evaluated. We find that female cohorts with low sex ratios have fewer children at younger ages and a larger fraction remains childless. While childlessness remains higher throughout their life cycle, mothers from affected cohorts catch up and even overcompensate at later ages with respect to the number of children. Our preferred reading of this result is that with low sex ratios women select themselves into late motherhood according to their fertility preferences. This interpretation is consistent with the finding that women from affected cohorts expand their childbearing period and accept lower quality matches in the marriage market. Our findings have important implications for understanding the long-term consequences of large population shocks. (c) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.